MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-12
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 2,999,185.00
- Change
- -0.77%
- 1W Change
- -4.98%
- 20D Change
- -8.87%
- EMA20
- 3,170,991.11
- EMA50
- 3,158,518.86
- EMA200
- 2,896,966.61
- RSI (14)
- 34.8
- ATR (14)
- 83,530.19
- Volatility (20D)
- 27.09%
- Distance from 20D High
- -11.68%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 14.45
- US10Y
- 4.68%
- DXY
- 100.00
The index closed lower, extending a recent pullback amid elevated volatility and a cautious tone.
Market Drivers
The decline appears driven by broad risk-off sentiment, with market breadth weak and no clear sector leadership.
Trend Interpretation
Price is trading below its short-term and medium-term moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend, though it remains above the long-term average, suggesting a longer-term uptrend is still intact.
Risk Factors
Key risks include a potential break below the long-term average, which could signal a deeper correction, and continued high volatility.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could find support near its long-term average and rebound, reclaiming the short-term averages as momentum improves.
Neutral
A neutral scenario would see the index consolidating in a range, oscillating around its moving averages as it digests recent losses.
Risk
In a risk scenario, the index could break below the long-term average, triggering further selling and a more pronounced downtrend.