MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-11
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 3,022,484.50
- Change
- -3.19%
- 1W Change
- -5.22%
- 20D Change
- -6.41%
- EMA20
- 3,189,075.91
- EMA50
- 3,165,021.98
- EMA200
- 2,895,158.82
- RSI (14)
- 36.2
- ATR (14)
- 281,667.06
- Volatility (20D)
- 28.32%
- Distance from 20D High
- -60.05%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 15.28
- US10Y
- 4.68%
- DXY
- 99.82
The index is experiencing a notable decline, with momentum firmly to the downside and prices trading below key short-term averages.
Market Drivers
The move is driven by broad risk-off sentiment, as reflected in elevated volatility and a stronger dollar, while market breadth remains weak.
Trend Interpretation
Price action is below both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend, with the longer-term 200-day average still providing a potential support zone.
Risk Factors
Key risks include continued deterioration in market breadth, a further rise in volatility, and a break below the longer-term average, which could accelerate selling.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could find support near the longer-term average and stage a rebound, with improving momentum and a recovery in market breadth.
Neutral
A neutral scenario would see the index consolidating in a range, with prices oscillating between the short-term resistance and the longer-term support, as volatility subsides.
Risk
In a risk scenario, a decisive break below the longer-term average could trigger further downside, with the index extending its losses and volatility spiking.