MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-14
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 2,947,349.25
- Change
- -1.77%
- 1W Change
- -4.52%
- 20D Change
- -7.89%
- EMA20
- 3,135,034.53
- EMA50
- 3,144,299.08
- EMA200
- 2,897,900.06
- RSI (14)
- 31.9
- ATR (14)
- 81,998.59
- Volatility (20D)
- 25.42%
- Distance from 20D High
- -13.21%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 14.25
- US10Y
- 4.70%
- DXY
- 99.64
The index is experiencing a notable decline, trading below key short-term and medium-term moving averages, with momentum indicators pointing to oversold conditions.
Market Drivers
The move is driven by broad risk-off sentiment, as reflected in elevated volatility and a stronger dollar, while the recent weekly and monthly losses suggest persistent selling pressure.
Trend Interpretation
Price is below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating a bearish short-term trend, but remains above the 200-day EMA, suggesting the longer-term uptrend is still intact.
Risk Factors
Key risks include continued weakness in global risk appetite, a further rise in volatility, and the index's proximity to its 200-day average, which could act as a critical support level.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound, with the index reclaiming its short-term moving averages and stabilizing above the 200-day EMA.
Neutral
In a neutral scenario, the index may consolidate within a range, oscillating between its recent low and the resistance offered by the declining moving averages.
Risk
In a risk scenario, a break below the 200-day EMA could accelerate selling, leading to a deeper correction and a shift in the longer-term trend.